The underlying model is identical to the 3D simulator's — twelve nations with fixed vulnerability index vi, the same loss accrual, inflow and iterative disbursement equations — but nothing here is a camera angle on that 3D scene. Each nation is plotted as a point in equity space: x = its cumulative disaster loss, y = cumulative amount the fund has actually paid it. A 45° diagonal marks y = x, the "fully funded" line — a nation sitting on it has been paid every dollar it has lost; the further a point falls below the line, the larger its uncovered gap. A fading trail behind each point traces its funding trajectory over simulated years, and a separate vertical gauge (not a 3D pool mesh) tracks the fund's live cash balance.
dLoss_i/dt = L0 · v_i · S · (0.75 + 0.5·rand())
dFund/dt = P · (1 − O) − Σ disbursed_i
Vulnerability-weighted: share_i = v_i / Σv_j
Equal-share: share_i = 1 / N
disbursed_i = min(unmet_i, available · share_i) (iterated until the pool
or every gap is exhausted)
point_i(t) = ( Loss_i(t), Funded_i(t) ) — distance below y=x is the gap
- Pledge rate P — how fast rich-country commitments actually convert into cash. At COP28 the fund launched with roughly $700M in pledges against an estimated $100B+/yr of loss-and-damage need — a ~150× gap this model lets you recreate at the "0" end of the slider.
- Overhead O — the share of every pledged dollar lost to fund administration before it reaches a country.
- Severity S — a stand-in for the emissions pathway: higher S means faster-compounding climate damages across every nation at once, which drags every point further right along the loss axis.
- Allocation rule — vulnerability-weighted keeps the highest-exposure nations' points closer to the diagonal; equal-share lets the most exposed nations drift furthest below it even while lower-vulnerability points sit near y=x.
- Because every point's vertical distance below the diagonal is its funding gap in dollars, this view makes the equity question the 3D towers only hint at (via color) into the primary axis of the chart.