🍯 Cohort Analysis for Honey Subscription Businesses

About this simulation

Each row of glowing honey jars is a monthly signup cohort — all the customers who joined a honey subscription box in the same month. Reading straight down a column shows how a single cohort shrinks month by month as members churn; reading across rows compares cohorts of different ages side by side. This is exactly how a subscription operator reads a real cohort retention table, just rendered as a 3D jar grid instead of a spreadsheet of percentages.

How it works

• Monthly churn — the fraction of each cohort that cancels every month. Retention after n months ≈ (1 − churn)ⁿ, drawn as the shrinking jar count per row.
• Subscription price / gross margin — together they set the monthly gross profit per active subscriber.
• Customer lifetime value (LTV) — the sum of expected monthly gross profit over a subscriber's whole modelled lifetime, which lengthens automatically as churn falls.
• CAC payback — how many months of gross profit it takes to earn back what was spent to acquire the customer; the LTV : CAC ratio is the classic rule-of-thumb health check (healthy subscription businesses usually target 3:1 or better).

Controls

• Monthly churn — cancellation rate per month (2–25%).
• Subscription price — monthly box price in £.
• CAC per customer — average cost to acquire one subscriber.
• Gross margin — share of price left after honey, jars, packaging and shipping.
• Highlight cohort — spotlight a single monthly cohort's row and dim the rest.
• Show retention curve — toggle the glowing line tracing % retained across months.
• ↺ New cohorts — re-roll individual member churn timing for fresh jitter. Drag to rotate, scroll to zoom.

Did you know?

A honey subscription box with 8% monthly churn keeps the average customer for roughly 12.5 months (1 ÷ churn) — cut churn to 4% and that lifetime roughly doubles, which is usually a far bigger lever on lifetime value than raising price.