Epidemic Spread

1,500 people commute between homes, work, school and shops. A virus hops between anyone who stands close together.

Speed

Virus

Health system

Interventions

Charts

Ghost of previous run

What am I seeing?

Susceptible people catch the virus after spending time within arm's reach of an infectious one. Incubating exposed people are not yet symptomatic.
Some infections are asymptomatic: milder and half as contagious, but invisible to quarantine.
Severe cases need a hospital bed. When the beds run out, the death rate is several times higher: that is why we flatten the curve.
R_eff is the average number of people each case infects right now. Below 1, the outbreak shrinks.
The network view shows who lives and works with whom. Bright links are actual transmissions.

A stylised model, not a forecast. Each tick is 15 minutes; transmission hazard is calibrated so that the R₀ slider matches the first generation of cases in a fully susceptible town.