Bayes' Theorem:
P(θ|data) ∝ P(data|θ) × P(θ)
Beta-Binomial conjugate: Prior Beta(α,β) + k successes out of n observations → Posterior Beta(α+k, β+n−k).
The blue curve is the prior, purple is the posterior. The green dashes show the likelihood.
Beta-Binomial conjugate: Prior Beta(α,β) + k successes out of n observations → Posterior Beta(α+k, β+n−k).
The blue curve is the prior, purple is the posterior. The green dashes show the likelihood.