loading...
No events yet.
1. Temperature of the eggs and the nest cup against air; green line 36 C, red line 28 C (chilling)
2. Height of the egg-cup floor and of the rim above the water line; below zero is flooded
3. Heave: lake surface and nest base over the last 10 seconds, relative to the mean level
4. Embryo development and the sitting parent's energy reserve
running...
The science
A raft that floats because its average density is below water. A grebe builds its nest from weed, reed stems and rotting plant matter heaped on the water and anchored to standing reeds. The heap is mostly air and wet fibre. Archimedes' principle gives the draft of a raft of mass M and waterline area A (a cylinder, diameter D):
d = M / (ρw A), M = mdry(1 + w) + n megg + mbird
Here w is the mass of absorbed water per kilogram of dry vegetation. For a uniform heap the draft is the fraction ρb/ρw of its height with ρb = ρdry(1 + w). Rain and wicking raise w (relaxation time of hours), decay removes dry mass, and the parents add fresh material, so the freeboard drifts over days. The nest is lost when the egg-cup floor (82% of the height) reaches the waterline: the spare buoyancy shown in the readout is ρw A (zcup − d), the extra load that would just awash the cup.
Heave and waves. Vertical motion of the raft follows a damped oscillator driven by the local water level η(t):
(M + ma) z'' = ρw g A s − M g − c z' − Ttether, s = clamp(η − z, 0, H), ma = ρw D3/3
The undamped natural period is T = 2π√((M + ma)/(ρw g A)), about 1.3 s for the default nest. The added mass of a heaving disc is a textbook value, not a fit to a real nest. Anchor strands act as a one-way spring: they are slack until the nest has risen by the slack length, then pull it down with stiffness 3.5 kN/m (a rising lake can then drown the cup). Wind waves use the fetch-limited deep-water fits Hs = 0.0016 U√(F/g) and Tp = 0.286 (gF/U2)1/3 U/g, realised as two sine components with the right variance. The nest is assumed small against the wavelength (long-wave approximation).
Egg and nest thermodynamics. Two lumped nodes: eggs (heat capacity Ce = n m c, c = 3.3 kJ/kg K) and the nest cup material (Cc from its wet mass).
Ce Te' = Gbp(Tbp − Te) + Gec(Tc − Te) + Gea(Ta − Te) + Gf(Tw − Te)
Cc Tc' = Gec(Te − Tc) + Gcw(Tw − Tc) + Gca(Ta − Tc) + Pmic
Gbp exists only while a parent sits (brood-patch temperature 38 C); a sitting parent also cuts the air conductances, and a layer of wet weed pulled over the eggs when they are left cuts them too. Gcw = kbA/L conducts heat down to the lake through the freeboard thickness L — the lower the nest sits, the larger it gets, which is why a waterlogged nest chills its eggs. Gf is the flooding term from waves overtopping the cup. Rotting weed warms the cup with Pmic = p mdry 2(Tc−20)/10 (Q10 = 2, capped above 40 C, reduced in a waterlogged heap).
Incubation energetics. The sitting parent spends basal metabolism BMR = 3.79 M0.723 W (non-passerine allometry, M in kg), extra heat when the air is below about 12 C, and 70% of the heat it delivers to the eggs. Off the nest it forages at three times BMR and gains a modest assimilated intake that you scale with food availability. Embryo development accumulates at (Te − 24)/12 of the nominal rate (28 days at 36 C); a chilling load ∫ max(0, 30 − Te) dt, hours of flooding and heat stress lower the hatching-success estimate.
Honest simplifications. (1) The nest is a vertical cylinder of uniform density, not a cone with a compacted base. (2) Added mass, damping ratio, conductances and all biological thresholds (28 C chilling, 160 C-hour tolerance, 4%/h flooding penalty) are plausible illustrative values, not measurements of one nest. (3) Parent behaviour is a simple schedule with two safety rules; real grebes also dive, turn the eggs and adjust cover to the weather. (4) Eggs are drawn 1.3 times larger than life so that they stay visible.
Checks run in the page. The settled draft equals Archimedes' value; the simulated heave period equals 2π/(ω0√(1−ζ2)); a 40-minute bare cooling of the two-node model equals the exact matrix-exponential solution; at steady state under the brood patch the heat the parent delivers equals the conductive loss of the eggs; the wave height matches the fetch formula and splits its variance correctly between the two sine components.