Retention campaign policy

Churn-risk score threshold for offer: 60%

This case study models 2000 active subscribers, each with a model-predicted churn risk score and a true underlying churn probability. Customers scoring above the threshold receive a retention offer (a discount) costing the business money but reducing their chance of churning.

Monthly outcome

Customers offered discount—

Customers retained by offer—

Net campaign value—

Customers by churn-risk score (green ring = retained by offer)