Ensemble setup

Ensemble members: 120 Warming drift: 2.5 °C/decade Volatility (σ): 0.45 °C/yr Mean reversion (θ): 0.25 Projection horizon: 80 yrs

Extreme-risk threshold

Anomaly threshold: 3.0 °C

Projection playback

Playback speed: 1.0×

Live ensemble stats

Year0 / 80

Ensemble mean anomaly—

Median (p50)—

10–90% band width—

P(exceed threshold)—

Each of the N thin lines is an independent Ornstein–Uhlenbeck path: it mean-reverts toward a warming equilibrium (set by the drift slider) with random annual shocks (volatility). The shaded band is the live 10th–90th percentile spread across the whole ensemble at each year — not a decoration, it is recomputed by sorting the ensemble's actual values every frame. The lower panel is a real histogram of the ensemble's distribution at the current year; its red region is the empirical probability of exceeding your chosen extreme-risk threshold.